Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 8th March 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 11th March 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 5.18% during this week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index is holding above the 112.20 NOK horizontal support zone and the price low of 112.81 NOK from February 29th, 2024.

You can see on the chart that the Oslo FoB Index broke under the nearby upward sloping green dotted support trendline and is continuing to respect the underside of the red downward sloping resistance trendline. It’s not a huge negative issue breaking below the green dotted support trendline but it’s not good news either. It’s a sign the move up is losing momentum in the short term. It would be a bullish signal if the market can make a low above the 112.81 NOK price low to avoid the pattern of beginning to make lower price highs and lower price lows.

The Composite Index is continuing to move towards the lower end of its displacement range without a similar move down in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index has used this displacement for as resistance four times in its available history so it could be used as a support. If the Composite Index can’t hold its current displacement the next logical target would be at the green dotted line. The moving averages on the Composite Index continue to widen with a negative displacement.

The RSI is also continuing to move down. The RSI does have more history of making turns at its current displacement than the Composite Index. The RSI appears to have run to up test the negative crossover of its moving averages and is being repelled back down. As discussed many times in these updates, this is the type of setup and can lead to steep declines.

In summary, the bullish view of the Oslo FoB Index is weakening. If the Oslo FoB Index breaks below the 112.20 NOK horizontal support zone it would be a concern if you were long the Oslo FoB Index. My biggest concern is the RSI testing the negative crossover of its moving averages and being repelled back down. The weekly view from last week’s update showed bearish divergence in the RSI and the Composite Index. Also mentioned many times in these updates, it appears the Oslo FoB Index seems to make price highs in March to May of each year within the available data. If the Oslo FoB Index can break above the nearby red down sloping trendline, this would help support a higher price outlook in the near term for the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction