Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 8th August 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 11th August 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 12.6% this week to finish the week at 62.67 NOK. The Index rallied above the two “stronger” horizontal pink resistance levels and blue, red and light blue trendlines during this week of trading.

The next resistance zone is at 64.11 NOK. There is also a brown trendline nearby the 64 NOK price level that connects the price lows from December of 2024 and May of 2025. I kept the measured move price targets in place discussed in previous updates. The 100% move from this measured move is also in the 64 NOK price area. This price area has three independent techniques showing resistance near 64 NOK price level. Meaning, the 64 NOK price area might be a more challenging to overcome.

The Composite Index is at the higher end of its displacement range. The Composite Index is also showing a bearish signal represented by the pink trendline drawn on the Composite Index. The price of the Oslo FoB Index at the start of the pink trendline is higher than the current price. While the Composite Index is at a higher displacement. The Composite Index is more overbought at lower prices. This isn’t a bullish setup.

The RSI has a similar setup as the Composite Index. The RSI is more overbought at lower Oslo FoB Index prices. The RSI does have more room to move to higher displacements while still being within a bearish displacement range. The RSI does have some history at this displacement of making highs and lows.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index has bounced back up in price after a strong price decline. However, the Oslo FoB Index is heading to what appears to be a “stronger” resistance zone near 64 NOK. The indicators are also displaying a bearish set up. The current setup suggests the Oslo FoB Index may have to pause or rest to let the indicators reset. It’s certainly possible/likely this bearish setup can lead to lower Index prices.

The Oslo FoB Index is near the lower end of its historical price range. The seasonal price lows have come in late August to early October within the available history of data. The Oslo FoB Index may need some spend more time bobbing up and down in price before it puts in its seasonal price lows.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction