Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 7th March 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 10th March 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 1.69% during this week of trading to finish the week at 84.48 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 83.89 NOK horizontal support zone and the black upward sloping trendline.

In prior years seasonal highs, I’ve brought up the concept of a head and shoulders top. In this case, the head would be the late December high prices near 140 NOK, the left shoulder is shown on the chart as a pink LS. The right shoulder is shown on the chart with a pink RS. The typical sell signal is when the neckline is broken, this is represented by the brown upward sloping trendline. The projected price targets from this formation are 62.38 NOK, 55.85 NOK, 49.33 NOK and 28.21 NOK. I’m not saying that it’s 100%, it’s a head and shoulders top but if it is, the seasonal highs are in, and it appears the Oslo FoB Index is moving to much lower prices.

The Composite Index turned higher, right on the time signal that was discussed in last week’s update. The Composite Index is showing bullish divergence vs the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI. This divergence is represented by the purple upward sloping trendline. The Composite Index does have some history at its current displacement for making displacement lows, meaning it could use this displacement as a high. When the Composite Index rallies, it will be rallying up to test the negative crossover of it’s moving averages. This isn’t a super negative development if the Oslo FoB Index is still in a bull market. However, if the Oslo FoB Index is in a bear market, this could be an ominous signal for future prices in the Oslo FoB Index.

The RSI hit a displacement low of 34.20. 34.20 is in the bearish displacement range for the RSI. I’ve mentioned in prior updates that the RSI’s recent displacement lows has concerned me for several weeks. The real test will happen the next time the RSI rallies, at what displacement will the RSI roll back down? I drew a purple downward sloping trendline on the RSI to help you see the divergence with the Composite Index.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is testing the black upward sloping trendline and the 83.89 NOK horizontal support zone. There is bullish divergence between the Composite Index and the RSI. If this was an easily tradeable liquid market; I’d consider buying the Oslo FoB Index around 83.89 NOK with a stop order just under the 78.66 NOK horizontal support zone. The upside price targets would be where the red horizontal resistance lines intersect with prior upward sloping trendlines shown on the Oslo FoB Index price chart. The idea is to risk about 4 NOK and have an upside of 14 to 20 NOK. My biggest concern for the bulls is the displacement lows in the RSI. However, even if the Oslo FoB Index is in a bear market, that doesn’t mean the Index can’t rally for a few days or weeks.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction