Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 6th October 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 9th October 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index traded down a modest 1.66% this week. The 82.31 NOK horizontal resistance zone has shown itself to be a stronger resistance zone along with the price moving very close to the same price.

The Oslo FoB Index tested the green upsloping trendline along with a faster price moving average and held support. The Oslo FoB Index did make a modestly lower low in price during the week. At this time, I do not believe this is a major concern.

The Composite Index has made a significant pull back in its displacement vs the corresponding price movement in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index could be resetting lower for another move higher while the Oslo FoB Index moves sideways. The Composite Index tested the green trendline drawn on the indicator from a previous divergence signal and held support. The concerning issue for the Composite Index is the next rally is going to rally into the negative crossover of its moving averages. As noted previously in these updates, if the Composite Index tests this negative crossover and fails, it can lead to strong move down in the Oslo FoB Index.

The RSI has also retreated from last weeks displacement. The RSI bounced off the 54 displacement and appears to be heading to test the underside of its fast-moving average. Notice the spread between the two moving averages on the RSI. The spread is historically wide looking back through the RSI’s history. The spread between the two moving averages is converging.

Which direction is the Oslo FoB Index going to go in the short term? Breaking above the 82.31 NOK resistance zone or breaking below the green upsloping trendline will give the first clues in the short term. If the green trendline is broken, it’s important for the RSI to stay above the 35-displacement area to say the prices lows are in for the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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