Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 6th June 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 9th June 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 22.99% during this week of trading to end the week at 82.49 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index broke above three horizontal resistance zones and three trendlines during this week of trading.

The Oslo FoB Index is testing the red downward sloping trendline that connects the price highs from December of 2024 and April of 2025. It is also testing the 81.12 horizontal resistance zone. We’ve learned that this trendlines and support and resistance zones need to be drawn with a “thicker” line. The Oslo FoB Index has made its first higher price high since April of 2025. The trend of lower price lows and lower price highs has been interrupted.

The Composite Index is at one of its six highest displacements in the history of the data. The Composite Index formed a top at its current displacement in three of the past six prior times it was at this displacement. If the Composite Index keeps moving higher, history says it doesn’t have much more room to move higher. The Composite Index has reached this displacement during previous bears market only once, in July 2021. The Composite Index also used this displacement near the price highs in March of 2024.

The RSI is near the upper range of its bearish displacement range history. Like the Composite Index, the RSI has broken above several resistance trendlines during this week of trading. It will be interesting to see at what displacement the RSI makes its next high. The RSI has a history of pushing to the 69 to 73 displacements when starting a new season bull market.

I included a weekly view of the Oslo FoB Index in this week’s update. Each bar on the chart is one week of price movement. The first thing I noticed was the bullish divergence in the Composite Index. The Composite Index is testing the underside of its slow-moving average, which can be used as resistance. Notice what happens to the Oslo FoB Index when the moving averages on the indicators change from positive to negative displacements and vice-versa. The Composite Index’s moving average displacement changes first and then the RSI gives a confirming signal.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index had made an impressive rally during this week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index is overbought and needs its indicators to reset to a lower displacement to sustain a longer rally in time. It’s my opinion because of the strength of the Composite Index, the Oslo FoB Index will likely pull back in price, but the next move down should be bought because the price high for this swing is unlikely in. We usually see a divergence signal in the Composite Index before the final price high or low. I’m not seeing any recent divergence signals at this time in the indicators. It will be interesting to see at what displacement the RSI uses for resistance and support in the coming weeks.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction