Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 5th September 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 8th September 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 9.28% this week to finish the week at 72.32 NOK. I had to make some changes to the chart with this week’s rally. The horizontal support and resistance zones have been refreshed using recent data.

I also eliminated may of the diagonal trendlines and changed the green upsloping trendline connecting two recent bottoms to a dashed line. I copied this green dashed green line and pasted it on the price high in early August and turned it to a red dashed line. I was interested to see if this red dashed trendline would act as resistance. Friday’s trading overtook this trendline. These red and green dashed trendlines could be used as support/resistance in the future. The Oslo FoB Index is currently testing the underside of the 72.48 NOK horizontal resistance zone.

The Composite Index made a small pull back and now is turning back up. The Composite Index is again showing bearish divergence. The Oslo FoB Index has been making higher price highs this week while the Composite Index has not. The Composite Index is rallying to test the underside of the brown downward sloping trendline that connects a prior divergence signal. The Composite Index is also near the higher end of its displacement range, meaning at some point, the Composite Index will need to reset to lower displacements. The Composite Index does have history of making displacement highs near its current displacement. I eliminated several of the previously drawn trendlines from the Composite Index and RSI panes that were no longer relevant. The grey and brown trendlines on the Composite Index are suggesting September 19th, plus or minus a day or two, might be a date to monitor for possible change in trend.

The RSI displacement is now operating in a bullish displacement range. Go back and look at when the RSI has been at this displacement. How many times was at this displacement during bear vs bull markets? The exercise can help give you probabilities if we were trading the Oslo FoB Index. The trendlines drawn from previous divergence signals that crossed this week appears to be signalling an acceleration of trend signal or the halfway mark for this current swing up. The RSI does have history of making highs near its current displacement level. The RSI, like the Composite Index, is at the higher end of its historical displacement range and will need to reset lower. There is also bearish divergence between the RSI and the Composite Index.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index appears to have made its seasonal price lows, and the trend of higher price highs and higher price lows is starting. The Composite Index is displaying bearish divergence with the RSI and the Oslo FoB Index while the Index is testing the underside of a horizontal resistance line. I’m not saying the Oslo FoB Index can’t continue with its current swing but the move up is running out of momentum. If we were trading the Oslo FoB Index with non-deliverable contracts, this would not be the place to go “all in”. Wait for the price and indicators to reset and then buy the Index on a horizontal support zone.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction