Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 5th May 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 9th May 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index has broken below its prior recent lows this week. Since the current move down started in mid-April, the Oslo FoB Index has been making lower lows and lower highs.

The next horizontal support zone is 107.90 NOK. There is a price moving average and a blue upward sloping trendline that should offer support in this price area. I drew in a green downward sloping trendline that connects the prior two lows in the Oslo Index. This should also offer additional price support. The bullish view for the Oslo FoB Index is I can clearly see a five-wave swing down from the most recent top. Like the five-wave swing down from the top in March 2023. The move down can continue but I’d expect to find some support for the Oslo FoB Index in the 107.90 NOK price area. There is also bullish divergence between the Composite Index, RSI and the Oslo FoB Index.

The Composite Index has been trending up since the lows in late March of 2023 and the Oslo FoB Index has been trending down. The RSI has not broken into lower lows like the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI is also holding the 40-displacement area which is bullish. In the last eight days the Oslo FoB Index has made a lower low, the Composite Index is a higher displacement, and the RSI has not broken into new lows. This is bullish divergence. The bearish view for the Oslo FoB Index is the setup in the Composite Index. The Composite Index has rallied and tested the negative crossover of its moving averages. The Composite Index was turned back down after this test. If the Oslo FoB Index can hold the 107.90 NOK price area and stay above the blue and green trendlines the trend looks bullish. If the Oslo FoB Index breaks below the 107.90 NOK, green and blue trendlines there could be another significant move down starting.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction