Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 5th July 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 8th July 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index fell 4.07% during this week of trading. Since June 24th, 2024, the Oslo FoB Index has been swinging back and forth between the nearest support zone and the resistance zone, 73.63 NOK and 76.75 NOK.

The trend of lower price lows and lower price highs continues. The Oslo FoB Index appears to have found some equilibrium between the buyers and sellers, for now. An early clue to the start of the next move in prices will be indicated by either breaking above 76.75 NOK or below 73.63 NOK.

The Composite Index didn’t rally much from the test of its positive crossover of its moving averages. This is another reason to pay attention the trend of the Oslo FoB Index. If the Oslo FoB Index was trending higher vs lower, the probability of this signal increases significantly. The fast-moving average is now starting to roll back down which is increasing the probability of another move lower in prices. Can you see how far the Composite Index displacement as moved higher vs the corresponding move in price in the Oslo FoB Index since May 2024? The Composite Index is more overbought at lower Oslo FoB prices, this is also bearish.

The RSI is continuing to stay above its fast-moving average and has been displaying bullish divergence vs the Oslo FoB Index since June 24th, this is usually a bullish development. However, now the RSI has made another higher high while the Composite Index and the Oslo FoB Index has not. This is bearish divergence. As mentioned in last weeks report, the RSI’s current displacement has been used as support and resistance in the past.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index had a quite week in price movement. I still think the Oslo FoB Index has a chance to rally in price but the signals to support view this are weakening. With the small price movements during this week in trading, I don’t have a lot of colour to add this week on the chart.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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