Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 5th December 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 8th December 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 11.64% to end the week at 100.33 NOK. I made added some additional horizontal support zones and resistance zones to the price chart.

The Oslo FoB Index has tended to make large swings in price during this time of the year within the available history. I also drew in a steeper red dashed upward trendline onto the chart. This trendline connects the August 7th and the September 19th price highs. The 110.73 NOK horizontal resistance zone also has the newly created red dashed trendline intersecting it. There is confluence of horizontal resistance at the 100.23 NOK resistance zone. I’m not displaying the second method of resistance in the price chart. I’d prefer to keep the price chart’s appearance clean or less cluttered.

The Composite Index pane is far from clean or uncluttered but there is a reason. The Composite Index is now near the higher end of its historical displacement range history. The Composite Index is at the same displacement as it was at the November 14th price high while the Oslo FoB Index is at a higher price. This is bearish divergence. We’ve been through this many times in past reports, the Composite Index is at a high displacement, and it will need to reset to stage another rally. Can the Composite Index keep moving higher, absolutely, but this isn’t same risk / reward ratio for a trade setup we saw on November 21, 2025. The next two trendlines drawn from divergence signals that will cross is around December 16, 2025.

The RSI has also moved to the higher end of its historical displacement range. The RSI is below the displacement level it was at on November 14th while the Oslo FoB Index is at a higher corresponding price. The RSI is displaying bearish divergence with the Oslo FoB Index and the Composite Index. This is another clue the move up is weakening or losing momentum.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is currently testing a confluence of horizontal resistance while displaying bearish divergence in its indicators. This is a much more bearish vs bullish setup for the Oslo FoB Index. However, the Oslo FoB Index has been making higher price highs and higher price lows since August. I would expect that trend to continue. Currently, the Oslo FoB Index is losing momentum. Can the price continue higher? Absolutely, but at the same time the trend is weakening.

I’d also like to point out a few items going back over some of my reports since August. I mentioned in August that the season price lows were probably in and if we were trading the Oslo FoB Index what would have happened? In August, the first higher price low came in around $59.xx NOK. Today, the current price is 100.33 NOK. That’s a 70% return. In early October, I suggested that this would be a good spot to enter the Oslo FoB Index. The Oslo FoB Index held support at 71.91 NOK and was displaying bullish divergence. The return from 71.91 NOK to 100.33 NOK is 39.50%. I work in the capital markets in the United States. Most investors would love to get 10% returns per year.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction