Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 4th July 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 7th July 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 9.4% to end the week at 62.98 NOK. The Index has made a lower price low during this week of trading, breaking the previous short-term trend of higher price highs and higher price lows.

The Index has broken below the 64.46 NOK horizontal support zone. The 59.68 NOK to 64.46 NOK support zones has a confluence of different unrelated techniques suggesting this price area has stronger support than other price areas.

The Oslo FoB Index is testing the green downward sloping trendline that connects a few prior price lows. I also reintroduced a retracement grid that was discussed in a previous update a few months ago. I made the assumption that the 99.95 NOK price area was the middle of the swing down. I measured up to the previous price high and then made a projection down for a lower future price target. That price target is 63.39 NOK, plus or minus. This is another technique that points to this price area for possible support.

The Composite Index is testing its fast-moving average along with the black upward sloping trendline that connects a prior divergence signal. The Composite Index has used this displacement infrequently for making recent changes of trend. The Composite Index is displaying bullish divergence vs the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index is at a higher displacement than the prior June 20, 2025, displacement low, while the Oslo FoB Index is at a lower price.

The RSI is testing the displacement low from June 20th , 2025. The RSI has broken below the blue upward sloping trendline that connects a prior divergence signal. The RSI has a recent history of using its current displacement for support. The RSI continues to operate in a bearish displacement range.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index price is making modest price swings up and down, while the trend of lower price lows and lower price highs continues. There are several different unrelated techniques suggesting that there is a stronger amount of price support in the 59.68 NOK to 64.46 NOK price area than other support zones. The RSI has a recent history of making displacement lows at its current displacement. These are all reasons to be bullish for the Oslo FoB Index. It is more than possible the Oslo FoB Index price continues to drift lower.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction