Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 4th August 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 7th August 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index fell 6.57% during this week of trading. The Olso FoB Index is on top of the 77.44 NOK horizontal price support zone which can offer support.

The Oslo FoB Index is continuing to use the steeper red down sloping trend line as resistance. The trend of lower lows and lower highs is continuing. The Oslo FoB Index broke below the green rectangle price target shown in last week’s update. The next logical target will be the pink rectangle target shown on this week’s chart near 72.98 NOK. If you look at the most recent swing price highs, near 101.89 NOK, you can see that the Olso FoB Index appears to be starting the 5 wave or swing down on this current decline. Securities usually move in swings or waves of 3’s and 5’s. This 5th wave down does look like it has room to move lower.

Looking at longer-term time period, the Olso FoB Index does appear to peak in the near the spring equinox and bottom in the late summer months for the people living in the northern hemisphere. This is just a causal observation because we only have two years of price data to make this conclusion. We need 30 occurrences to measure if it is statistically significant. We only have 2 occurrences we can measure so don’t put too much weight into this observation.

The Composite Index rallied up to the purple and grey trendlines, its slow-moving average and turned back down. The Composite Index rallied into the negative crossover of its moving averages and failed. This is a bearish sign. The Composite Index is on top of its fast-moving average, which can offer support. The Composite Index did make a higher high and if it can hold its current displacement it would make a higher low. This would be a bullish development. The Composite Index does have a history of making lows at this displacement.

The RSI has rolled down to make a short term lower low along with the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI has used this displacement, or very close to this displacement, once for support and resistance.

Similar to last week’s update, not all of the data is bearish. The RSI and the Composite Index are both near the lower end of their displacement ranges. The Composite Index is diverging with RSI and the Olso FoB Index. Notice the black trendlines drawn on the RSI and Composite Index. In the very short term, the two indicators are diverging. The Oslo FoB Index breaking above the steeper red down trendline will be one of the first signs the Oslo FoB Index is attempting to rally. Until then, expect the trend to continue.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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