Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 31st March 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 3rd April 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index price is essentially even over the last week with a modest move down and recovery. The Index is up against the 115.79 NOK horizontal resistance line.

The Index has used the grey upsloping trendline as support and resistance in the past and is currently just above the line. I can count five waves/price swings down from the high trade from early March 2023. Meaning, it’s likely the Index can see a counter trend move targeting one of the red horizontal resistance zones. It’s possible the 120.96 NOK price resistance zone is the middle of the move down. I drew in two green rectangles to measure the move down from the 120.96 NOK price zone to the high prices and then to project a target to the downside. This implies that the target for the end of this current swing down is near the 107.25 NOK price support zone. It isn’t necessary for the Index to move down to the 107.25 support zone but it does increase the probability of reaching the 107.25 NOK support zone.

The Composite Index is near the lower end of its displacement history and currently just under its fast-moving average. Notice that the green and purple trendline drawn previously are crossing over very soon on the Composite Index pane. This is implying that the Index will have a change or acceleration of trend. The RSI is also at the lower end of its displacement history and has rallied just underneath its fast-moving average. The Composite Index and the RSI have used their current displacement as support and resistance. In this instance, if the indicators are pushed back down, they could be forming a double bottom formation that looks like a W. If this is a correction in a bull market for the Oslo FoB Index, it’s important for the RSI to hold the 40 displacement area. The RSI held the 40 displacement area at its last bottom.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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