Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 30th June 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 3rd July 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index had another week of overall upward price movement. The Oslo FoB Index is just under the 96.47 NOK resistance zone.

There is also a price moving average just above the 96.47 NOK horizontal resistance zone that should offer additional resistance. The Oslo FoB Index is also under the black up sloping trendline drawn from the lows in 2021 offering additional resistance.

The Composite Index is showing the same signal that stopped the rally in April 2023. I’ve drawn black trendline in the Composite Index from the peak in March and April 2023. The Oslo FoB Index made a lower high while the Composite Index made a higher high. The Composite is over bought at lower prices. This is a sign of weakness. We have the same signal currently, represented by the green trendline on the Composite Index. The Composite Index is also very close the same displacement where is this signal occurred in April 2023. The Composite Index has used this displacement as a high several times in its history.

The RSI is showing divergence with the Composite Index, just like it did with the sell signal in the Composite Index from March to April 2023. There is some history of the RSI using this displacement as support and resistance. It’s certainly possible that the Oslo FoB Index can continue to rally to the red down sloping trendline that has stopped the last two rallies in the Index. I have doubts that Oslo FoB Index can rally to the red down sloping trendline. An early signal the rally is failing is breaking the up sloping green trendline drawn under the most recent rally.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction