Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 29th December 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 2nd January 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index rallied another 16% this week. This is the second week in a row of impressive gains. During the last two weeks of trading the Oslo FoB Index has rallied 37.27%.

The Oslo FoB Index only spent one day testing the underside of the red upsloping trendline that offered resistance for the Oslo FoB Index in September and October of 2023. The Oslo FoB Index is now testing the underside of the 120.18 NOK resistance zone.

In last week’s update, I was projecting possible higher price targets using the 98.49 NOK support zone as the middle of the move up. After seeing the move in the Oslo FoB Index this week, I’m thinking the middle of the price move up is more likely the 103.43 NOK or 109.23 NOK support zone. I used the same technique as last week to measure from the 103.43 NOK support zone and measure down to swing lows with a rectangle. I then copied the same rectangles and put the rectangle above the 103.43 support zone to project future price targets. The light green rectangles projected target is just above the 120.18 horizontal resistance zone. What I find interesting is the rectangles projected future price targets are very close to horizontal price targets that were obtained with a completely different technique.

The Composite Index is still showing bearish divergence. The Composite Index is below its displacement high from November 29th 2023, while the Oslo FoB Index is at higher prices. The Composite Index does have history of using its current displacement as a resistance zone. The Composite Index is also close to the upper end of its historical displacement range. However, the Composite Index does have room to move higher.

The RSI is also at a very high displacement based on its past trading history. The RSI’s current displacement has been used as resistance. The RSI’s highest displacement readings in the available data is slightly higher than its current displacement. It’s very possible the RSI will test that displacement and may even exceed it.

The Oslo FoB Index has had an impressive rally during the last two weeks of trading. Moving up 37% in a two-week period is unsustainable in my humble opinion. At some resistance level the Oslo FoB Index will consolidate or retrace part of its recent move. Based on the projected price targets from the rectangles, I think the retracement will be corrective and there is higher price highs in the future for the Oslo FoB Index.

Wishing you and your families a happy and healthy 2024!

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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