Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 29th August 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 1st September 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 9.4% during this week of trading to finish the week at 66.18 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index rallied through a confluence of resistance during the week.

The last major obstacle for the Index is the brown downward sloping trendline that connects the prior two years’ price lows. I drew in a green trendline that connects the two most recent price lows to see if this trendline can add value in the future. The Index has made a higher price low and a higher price high. This is the definition of an uptrend. If the seasonal price lows are in, I would expect this trend to continue at least through the holiday season.

The Composite Index rallied to the higher end of its displacement range. Notice the Composite Index displacement high on August 7th, 2025. The Composite Index is currently at a lower displacement than August 7th, 2025, displacement high while the Oslo FoB Index is at a higher price. The Composite Index is displaying bearish divergence, meaning the current swing up is losing momentum. The brown downward sloping trendline on the Composite Index should help to see the divergence. Notice this newly created brown trendline will cross the green downward sloping trendline in early Oct 2025.

The timing target displayed in last week’s update on the Composite Index seemed to signal the push through the 64.11 NOK horizontal resistance zone.

The RSI has also rallied to the higher end of its displacement range for a bear market. In prior years seasonal price drops, this is about as high as the RSI can rally during a bear market. There is bearish divergence between the RSI and the Composite Index represented by the brown upward sloping trendline drawn on the RSI. This is more evidence that the current swing up in price is losing momentum. The newly created brown upward sloping trendline and the green upward sloping trendline, drawn for a divergence signal during October of 2024, will cross late next week.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index managed to rally above several significant zones of resistance during this week of trading. The brown downward sloping trendline and the 69.03 NOK horizontal resistance zones are the next two mostly likely price targets.

The Oslo FoB Index is testing the underside of a resistance zone, it is also displaying a bearish divergence signal in the Composite Index. These are clues that the Oslo FoB Index might need to rest or have a mild price pull back. It will be interesting to see if the Oslo FoB Index can make a higher price low and what displacement the RSI uses for a bottom.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction