Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 28th July 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 31st July 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index produced a small rally during the last week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index has broken above the steeper red downward sloping trendline.

The Oslo FoB Index also found support near the 82.28 NOK horizontal zone and near the brown price moving average. You can see where the resistance and support price zones are located on the chart.

The Composite Index has rallied to test its slower moving average. The moving averages have a negative displacement. The Composite Index is also testing the underside of two trendlines the Composite Index has used for support and resistance in the past. Represented by the purple and grey trendlines. There is considerable resistance at this displacement for the Composite Index. Look how far the Composite Index has rallied in the last week vs the corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index appears to be resetting to a higher displacement without a similar move in the Oslo FoB Index. This is usually a sign of weakness for the Oslo FoB Index.

The RSI is testing the underside of its fast-moving average. The RSI current displacement has a history of being used as support for the RSI. Hence, this displacement can also be used as resistance. The RSI moving averages also have a negative displacement.

There are reasons for being optimistic as about the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index and the RSI are making higher lows vs the Oslo FoB Index, making a lower low. The green upsloping trendlines on the indicators show this divergence. Remember that divergence is a sign the move down is losing momentum. However, this doesn’t mean the final lows are in either.

A few weeks ago, I made three measurements for future Oslo FoB Index price targets represented by rectangles on the Oslo FoB Index chart. I put the rectangle back into view that had the highest price target. You can see that the Oslo FoB Index has hit this target. When this happens, you’d usually expect to get some kind of reaction.

The next few weeks should be an interesting few weeks for the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction