Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 27th June 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 30th June 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 6.47% to end the week at 68.91 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index bounced of the confluence of support near 64.46 NOK. The market has rallied up to and penetrated the 68.31 NOK resistance zone.

I see a small “fishhook” pattern in the price chart from the last two days of trading. The prices have stalled and might be rolling over. It appears the market is respecting the 68.31 resistance zone area. The Index is also testing the blue trendline that connects three previous price highs. This trendline could offer additional resistance. The Oslo FoB Index has recently made a higher price high and higher price low.

The Composite Index has rallied from the low end of its displacement range to the middle or higher end of its displacement range. Notice how far the Composite Index’s displacement has moved relative to the price move of the Oslo FoB Index. We’ve seen these many times in past updates, this isn’t a sign of underlying strength for the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index doesn’t have a lot of history at its current displacement. I’m not seeing any current bearish divergence in the Composite Index. Notice the purple trendline drawn on the chart last week to highlight the previous bullish divergence signal. The purple and green trendlines crossed and at that intersection the Oslo FoB Index had a noticeable change in price.

The RSI has rallied up to a displacement it has used for displacement highs recently. The RSI also has the appearance of a small fishhook pattern. The RSI held the blue trendline during its last pullback. The blue trendline and the green dotted horizontal line would be a likely target if the Oslo FoB Index pulls back in price. It could be viewed that both indicators are testing the negative crossover of their moving averages.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index could be rolling over to retest the 64.46 NOK support zone. The large move in the Composite Index without a corresponding move in the Oslo FoB Index is concerning for the bulls. The RSI has used its current displacement as recent displacement highs. These are some reasons to have a bearish viewpoint. Can the Oslo FoB continue to move to higher prices? Absolutely. The likely target is the 72.62 NOK horizonal resistance zone. Notice there is the upward sloping purple trendline and the downward sloping red trendline and they all intersect near the 72.62 NOK price area.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction