Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 26th September 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 29th September 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 2.83% during this week of trading to finish the week at 77.75 NOK. I did some fine tuning of the horizontal support and resistance zones.

I like the three black trendlines drawn from the most recent low. The Oslo FoB Index is currently respecting these trendlines. The 78 NOK and 79 NOK area is both a support and resistance zone. This 78 NOK to 79 NOK price area has been an important price area in the history of the data. The purple, two red dashed and black trendlines could offer additional support if tested. The trend of higher price highs and higher price lows is continuing.

The first thing I noticed on the chart was how far down the Composite Index has fallen with very little price change. This is bullish behaviour. The Composite Index is resetting lower for another run while the price grinds sideways or down. The brown and grey trendlines intersection was the tipping point for the Composite Index. The crossing of the trendlines for a timing signal worked perfectly. There is a potentially very bullish signal that could be developing with the Composite Index. The Composite Index does some history of making displacement lows near its current displacement.

RSI has also pulled back from its historically high displacement. The RSI has used its current displacement for resistance within its history, so it is possible the RSI could use this displacement as support. However, the RSI has only used this displacement twice for resistance, meaning this isn’t a really strong area for support or resistance. The slow-moving average and purple trendline could offer additional support if tested. The RSI continues to operate within a bullish displacement zone.
In summary, the Oslo FoB Index appears to be resting and resetting for another swing up in prices. How far will the Index pull back? The intersection of the dashed red, purple trendlines and 73.49 NOK horizontal trendlines is a strong candidate. There is a timing signal for the middle of next week. I’m not seeing any bullish or bearish divergence, suggesting that the Oslo FoB Index probably has some more work to do during this price pull back.

If we were trading the Oslo FoB Index, I would be suggesting that clients buy the Oslo FoB Index during this pull back. First, I would wait for a bullish signal in the indicators to develop. Go back and look what happens after prior seasonal price lows, buying the first or second pullback after the seasonal price lows has a high probability of producing a successful investment.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction