Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 26th December 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 29th December 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 10.71% during this week of trading to end the week at 100.18 NOK. There was only two days of trading activity during the week, and this implies that it was a quiet week. This report will reflect the quiet week of trading.

The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 100.74 NOK support zone. If this support zone doesn’t hold, the next support area is 95.99 NOK, 90.56 NOK and then 85.75 NOK. The 85.75 NOK support zone is getting down near the lower end of the uptrend channel the Oslo FoB Index has been using since late July 2025. The Oslo FoB Index is continuing to make higher price highs and higher price lows.

The Composite Index has continued to rally even though the Oslo FoB Index price fell during the week. The Composite Index is now testing the crossing over of its moving averages. The Composite Index is also testing the underside of the purple trendline that was drawn from a previous divergence signal. The purple trendline can offer additional resistance. The brown and purple trendlines intersect just above the Composite Index’s current displacement. This intersection should provide some kind of timing signal for the Oslo FoB Index. The date of the intersection is December 30th, plus or minus a day or two. The Composite Index is displaying divergence compared to the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI.

The RSI displacement has fallen like the Oslo FoB Index during the week of trading. The RSI does have some recent history of using this displacement as a turning area. Notice the small W formation from late October to early November 2025.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is retracing some of it’s previous gains. This is normal activity even in uptrends. I’m sure most of the readers have heard the term “two steps forward and one step back”. The Oslo FoB Index is currently experiencing a step back. I don’t think the seasonal price highs are in. However, if you look at the RSI’s most recent displacement high, that displacement high matches the RSI’s displacement highs for the first rally after the seasonal price highs re in within the available data. This year price action is not a perfect fit with history, but this detail should not be ignored. The bullish view, the last four years seasonal price highs rallied near the pink trendline around 140 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index doesn’t have to test this trendline, but it is four for four the last four years.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction