Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 26th April 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 29th April 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index rallied 6.03% during this week of trading to end at 126.94 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index used the 119.53 NOK horizontal support zone and the green upsloping trendline for support.

The Oslo FoB Index broke above the brown dashed downtrend line on Wednesday signalling that the move down was running out of momentum. I updated the horizontal resistance zones above the Oslo FoB Index using the recent price low. I’m seeing two different resistance techniques showing overlapping target resistance zone around the 126.35 NOK and 127.65 NOK price area. Meaning, this price area is a “stronger” price resistance zone than the other resistance zones on the chart.

The Composite Index starting diverging with the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI on Monday April 22, 2024. This is represented by a short green trendline drawn on the Composite Index and the RSI. Notice the Composite Index is rallying to test a late negative crossover of its moving averages. The Composite Index also has prior history of using this displacement as support and resistance. The slow-moving average is also approaching this displacement. The signal from last week’s update showing the Composite Index being oversold at higher Oslo FoB Index prices is strong enough to help the rally continue. This is represented by the pink trendline on the Composite Index.

The first thing I looked at in today’s updated chart was, did the RSI hold 40 (ish) displacement during this recent price decline? Yes, it did. The RSI held this displacement area that has started rallies in the Oslo FoB Index during this rally that started last August. The RSI is also rallying up to test a late negative crossover of its moving averages. I’ve mentioned this in several previous updates, when an indicator rallies up to test the negative cross over of its moving averages and fails, this is where strong downward price moves begin.

As usual, there are some bullish and bearish clues in this week’s chart of the Oslo FoB Index. The bullish view is in bull markets the indicators move above the negative crossovers of their moving averages with ease. For example, the rally in the Composite Index from March 13th to March 27th, 2024. The oversold signal mentioned in the paragraph in the Composite Index is also usually a signal the Oslo FoB Index can rally. The RSI held the 40 (ish) displacement area. I’m also not seeing any bearish divergence in the indicators.

The bearish case for the Oslo FoB is the indicators are rallying to test a recent negative crossover of their moving averages. If this test fails, look out below. We are also in the late April time period. In the available history of the Oslo FoB Index, the Index usually has its price highs in the late March to early May time periods. The Oslo FoB Index is at a strong resistance price zone. The next few weeks will be very interesting for the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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