Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 25th April 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 28th April 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index traded down 25.25% during this week of trading to close the week at 71.89 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index is currently testing the pink horizontal confluence zone and the purple up trending line that connects previous years price lows.

I would think that this would be a “stronger” support zone because there are three separate unrelated techniques showing support near the same price area. This isn’t always the case, but this area should have stronger support than one individual technique standing alone. I added more horizontal support zones at lower prices for your review. At this time, I’m going to make an educated guess that the 100 NOK price area is likely the middle of the move down for this swing. If this is the case, then the seasonal price lows in the Oslo FoB Index are projected down near the 59.66 NOK horizontal support zone.

The Composite Index is testing the displacement low that held during the pull back in February 2025. This displacement has produced other displacement lows for the Composite Index. The moving averages are displaying a positive crossover, and the Composite Index has pulled back to test the positive crossover. The Composite Index needs to bounce soon to validate this signal. This signal works well during bull markets. It’s not as effective during bear markets.

The RSI is also testing a displacement it has used as recent support. It’s my belief that the 36-displacement area is in the bearish displacement range for this security. The black trend line, drawn from a previous divergence signal, could also offer support for the RSI. Like the Composite Index, if the RSI is going to have a positive response after testing the positive crossover of its moving averages, it needs to move to higher displacements quickly.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index appears to have put in its seasonal price highs. The Oslo FoB Index is testing a support zone that was derived from three unrelated techniques. This suggests there should be strong price support nearby. The indicators are testing prior displacement lows that have produced rallies in the indicator. This supports the view that the Oslo FoB Index can rebound to higher prices. Can the Oslo FoB Index continue moving to lower prices? Absolutely. Supporting this view, I do not see any bullish divergence signals in the indicators suggesting that the current swing down is losing strength.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction