Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 24th November 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 27th November 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index rallied 5.53% to 83.40 NOK during this week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index continues to make higher price highs and higher price lows.

The Oslo FoB Index has broken above all the moving prices moving averages and the 81.16 NOK horizontal resistance price zone. The next horizontal price resistance zone is 85.86 NOK. The 81.16 NOK resistance area has now been breached and what once was resistance should act as support when tested. The same is true for the brown coloured price moving average near the 82.88 NOK horizontal support zone.

The Composite Index used the green trendline discussed in last weeks update as support. The Composite Index has rallied to a displacement that has shown resistance in its history. At the same time, the Composite Index history also suggests it can keep moving higher. The Composite Index tested and rebounded higher after testing the positive crossover of its moving averages during the last week of trading.

The RSI also tested the green support line and rallied higher during the last week. The RSI is now testing the same displacement where the RSI failed, and the prior downtrend started in April 2023. The RSI is also at a displacement that has been used as support and resistance in its history. Like the Composite Index, the RSI still has room to move to a higher displacement. Notice the RSI moving averages now have a positive displacement. I’d recommend going back and looking at what has happened to the Oslo FoB Index when the RSI moving averages change from a negative to a positive displacement in the available history of the Oslo FoB Index and vice versa.

One of the first signs the rally is weakening is if the green trendline drawn under the Oslo FoB Index is broken. I do see some divergence between the RSI and the Composite Index represented by purple trendlines drawn on the indicators. This could be a sign the move higher is losing momentum. It’s my opinion the Oslo FoB Index is heading to higher prices. That doesn’t imply the move will be straight up.The Oslo FoB Index will experience price pull backs along the way.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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