Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 24th May 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 28th May 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index fell 15.3% since last Thursday’s closing price. The Oslo FoB Index is now making lower price lows and lower price highs.

I drew in a red downward sloping trendline connecting the two most recent highs. I copied this same trendline and put it at the most recent prior low. You can see that the price of the Oslo FoB Index stopped at the green horizontal support line and where this lower red downward sloping trendline meet. I removed most of the upward sloping green trendlines from previous updates because those trendlines have been violated. These green upward sloping trendlines can now be used as resistance. I refreshed the horizontal support and resistance zones for your review.

The Composite Index didn’t respect the testing of its positive crossover of its moving averages. The Composite Index is now near the lower end of its historical displacement range. Notice the bullish divergence in the Composite Index represented by a pink upward sloping trendline. The Composite Index is at a higher displacement while the Oslo FoB Index is at a lower price. This is a bullish development. The Composite Index has also used its current displacement for previous lows. When the Composite Index does rally, it will be rallying into a test of the negative crossover of its moving averages.

The RSI is also testing the lower end of its historical displacement range. The RSI does not have bullish divergence with the Oslo FoB Index like the Composite Index does. The RSI has broken below the displacement range it has been using as support since this current rally started back in August 2023. The RSI is suggesting that the seasonal highs for the Oslo FoB Index are in. The next rally in the RSI should stop near the high displacement ranges it as used as resistance during past bear markets. This would be near the 60 to 70 displacement area. The last high in the RSI was near the 60-displacement area.

When I first started writing these updates for the Oslo FoB Index, it was suggested to me to cut myself off from the “chatter” of what is happening with the Oslo FoB Index. It was suggested to me to write on only what I see in the charts. This is what I’ve done. Based on the available price history, I’m assuming that the Oslo FoB Index appears to have seasonal price highs and lows because of the seasonal weather patterns around the planet. If this is the case, it appears the seasonal highs for the Oslo FoB Index are in. The Oslo FoB Index can rally but the trend of lower price highs and lower price lows will probably continue.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is sitting on a horizontal support zone. The red downward sloping trendline is also at the Oslo FoB Index’s current price. This trendline should offer some support. I’m seeing bullish divergence in the Composite Index. Both indicators are near the lower end of their historical displacement ranges. It’s very possible the Oslo FoB Index can rally from its current price. If you were trading the Oslo FoB Index, this would not be a place to go “all in long”. The trend has changed from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows. I suggest trading with the trend not against it.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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