Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 24th January 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 29th January 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index spent most of the week digesting its gains from earlier in the month to close at 109 NOK. This is an increase of 3.26% from last Friday’s close.

The Oslo FoB Index did pull back from testing the negative crossover of its price moving averages. The green support trendline drawn from the lows on January 11 and 18 caught the Oslo FoB Index and repelled it higher. The Oslo FoB Index is now above both price moving averages and appears it will test the underside of the 109.98 NOK horizontal resistance zone. The Oslo FoB Index is continuing to make higher highs and higher lows in the last three weeks of trading. The attached chart has horizontal support and resistance zones for your review.

The Composite Index has rallied above both of its moving averages. The rally up to test the negative crossover of its moving averages does not appear to be as ominous as it looked a week ago. The moving averages on the Composite Index are starting to converge, which is bullish for the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite does have history of using this displacement as support and resistance. The Composite Index does have plenty of room to move to higher displacements.

The RSI rallied to test the underside of the negative crossover of its moving average. Similar to the Composite Index, it doesn’t look as ominous as it did a week ago. The RSI used its fast-moving average as support and has broken above its slow-moving average. The moving averages for the RSI are converging. Like the Composite Index, this is bullish behaviour. The RSI has used its current displacement as support and resistance in its history. Raising the probability that it could use this displacement again for support and resistance.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is continuing to display bullish behaviour in its price action and in the indicators. However, this doesn’t mean it’s 100% that the Oslo FoB Index is heading to higher prices. As always, there is both bullish and bearish characteristics in this week’s chart. For example, look at the red trendline drawn on the Composite Index and the RSI from the highs earlier this week. The red trendline Composite Index is pointing down. The red trendline from the same dates are trending up on the RSI. This is bearish divergence. The RSI and the Composite Index are also both at displacements that have changed their trend. This divergence could be an early sign the move up is losing momentum. Another concerning development is the distance travelled in the Composite Index vs the RSI since the lows on January 12th. The Composite Index’s displacement has travelled a significant distance more than the RSI displacement change. This is also a concern for the bulls.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction