Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 23rd May 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 27th May 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index finished the week at 64.23 NOK, down 14.18% for the week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index broke below the confluence of support near the 72 NOK and the green downward sloping support line.

I introduced a new support brown line that connects the price lows from 2023 and 2024 that is near current prices. I wouldn’t put a lot of probability in this new brown support line but it’s worth consideration. I also refreshed the green and red horizontal support and resistance zones.

In an update from several weeks ago, I mentioned that I assumed the middle of this current swing down was around the 100 NOK price area. Using simple geometry, the price target with this technique would be near the 60.07 NOK horizontal support zone. I would think that with two different techniques pointing to the same general price area this price target should have a higher probability of occurring. The second unrelated technique is the horizontal support zone at 60.07 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index is currently sitting near the horizontal support zone at 64.46 NOK.

The Composite Index didn’t even slow down while testing the positive crossover of its moving averages. The Composite Index is currently at a displacement it has used for support recently. The Composite Index is also showing bullish divergence compared to the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI. This is a sign the move down is losing momentum. I put a black trendline on the Composite Index and the RSI to show this divergence.

The RSI broke below recent displacement lows and is near testing a black trendline drawn from a divergence signal from November and December 2024. There is an additional trend line I drew in to help show the divergence with the Composite Index. The RSI also has a history of making lows near its current displacement. The RSI is near a 30 displacement. This means the Oslo FoB Index is in a bear market.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is on a horizontal support zone, the Composite Index is displaying bullish divergence. The Composite Index and the RSI have a history of making turns at their current displacements. These are all clues saying the Oslo FoB Index needs to rebound back to higher prices. Can the Oslo FoB Index continue down to lower prices? Absolutely. The Oslo FoB Index is continuing to make lower price lows and lower price highs. Until this trend changes, there is really no reason to have a bullish view regarding the Oslo FoB Index except for an occasional rebound rally.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction