Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 23rd June 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 26th June 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index rallied 5.35% during the last week. There are two price moving averages very close to the Oslo FoB Index current price that could provide resistance.

You can also see the brown uptrend line drawn from the lows from the second half of 2022 that can offer resistance at this price area. There is a price moving average and a horizontal price resistance zone at 96.47 NOK. The 96.47 NOK price area also has the purple trendline drawn from previous lows that should also offer price resistance for the Oslo FoB Index. Since the Oslo FoB Index peak in March of 2023, – when the Oslo FoB Index does rally after a pullback -, the rallies have retraced 2/3 to 3/4 of the previous decline before starting the next move down. A 2/3 to 3/4 retracement (back up) of the most recent decline measures to 106.08 NOK and 112.39 NOK. There is a horizontal price resistance zone at 106.08 NOK. We have two non-correlated techniques pointing at the 106.08 NOK resistance zone. I’m not implying the Oslo FoB Index is going to 106.08 NOK. I’m suggesting that if the market does it’s typical 2/3 to 3/4 retracement of the prior move, the odds favour the 106.08 NOK vs the 112.39 NOK price level currently.

The Composite Index has made a significant rally vs the price move in the Oslo FoB Index, this is usually bearish action for the security. The Composite Index at its current displacement does have history for being used as support and resistance. There is a light blue trend line drawn from previous divergence that could offer resistance for the Composite Index. The moving averages on the Composite Index should start to converge shortly.

The RSI has also turned up and has rallied above its short-term moving average. The RSI current displacement does have history being used for support, meaning this displacement could also act as resistance.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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