Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 22nd May 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 22nd May 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index had little price movement the during the last week. The Oslo FoB Index did make an attempt at the 115.72 NOK resistance line but the Oslo FoB Index didn’t make it all the way to the resistance zone.

The black downward sloping trendline stopped the price advance just short of the 115.72 NOK resistance zone. The Oslo FoB Index did make a slightly lower high vs the high near the end of April 2023. The trend of lower highs and lower lows appears to be continuing. This brings in the support zone at 98.30 NOK into play below the most recent 102.68 NOK low. There is also a price moving average in the near the 98.30 NOK price area that could offer support.

The Composite Index has moved up despite the Oslo FoB Index having very little price movement. There is divergence between the Composite Index and the RSI. I drew in a black trendline on both indicators to help you see it. Notice the slope of the two black trendlines are sloping upward but at different angles. The bullish view looking out a week or two in time is the Composite Index is rolling over to possibly test the positive crossover of its moving averages. The Composite Index has been making higher lows while the Oslo FoB Index has been making lower lows since early March 2023. This is shown by the green upward sloping trendline on the Composite Index. This is a sign the downtrend in the Oslo FoB Index is losing momentum.

The RSI displacement didn’t change very much in the last week. The RSI did make a slightly higher high vs its last displacement high represented by the black trendline. There is a possible negative reversal signal developing in the RSI. The Oslo FoB Index price at the last RSI displacement high was 116.63 NOK. The current displacement for the RSI is higher than its previous displacement high with the current Oslo FoB Index price at 113.64 NOK. The RSI is at a slightly higher high while Oslo FoB Index is at a lower price. This is a sign of weakness for the Oslo FoB Index. The signal isn’t overwhelmingly strong but it’s still present. The RSI also appears to be rolling over under its slow-moving average.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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