Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 21st June 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 24th June 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index fell 7.46% during this week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index finished the week below the 78.07 NOK horizontal support zone and the purple uptrend line that connects the past several years low prices.

The next horizontal support zone is at 73.63 NOK. It’s obvious and at the same time needs to be pointed out again, the Oslo FoB Index is making lower price lows and lower price highs. It would be unwise to underestimate the importance of this observation. I reintroduced the measured move downside price targets that were discussed several weeks ago back into the chart. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the higher of the two measured move targets.

The Composite Index has rolled over and is now close to testing the positive crossover of its moving averages. This is usually a very bullish development. This signal loses much of its strength/reliability during downtrends. The Composite Index has limited history of making lows during downtrends at this displacement. The Composite Index did use this displacement as support once during a downtrend on May 30th 2022, which resulted in a rally in the Oslo FoB Index of 8%. However, the rally didn’t last long.

The RSI is testing the top of its fast-moving average. The RSI is also near the lower end of its historical displacement range. The RSI is also testing its high displacement from May 31st 2024. The spread between the fast- and slow-moving averages is starting to converge. The previous items should offer some additional support for the RSI. Notice that there is no bullish divergence in the Composite Index or the RSI during this week of trading. However, if you look at the low from June 10th 2024, the Oslo FoB Index is trading at a lower price vs the Composite Index and the RSI are at higher displacements. Both indictors are displaying bullish divergence. This is a sign the move down is losing momentum.

In summary, the downtrend in the Oslo FoB Index continues. The Oslo FoB Index is testing a measured move price target but is not at a horizontal support zone. Both indicators are starting to display bullish divergence. The Oslo FoB Index is due for a bounce up to higher prices in my humble opinion. However, I don’t make it a habit to stand in front of a freight train racing down the tracks expecting it to stop either.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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