Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 1st September 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 4th September 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index rallied 1.57% during the week of August 28th. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the underside of the red downtrend line connects the highs from June and July of 2023.

This red downtrend line should offer resistance. The Oslo FoB Index also has a nearby horizontal resistance zone at 72.47 NOK. Breaking above this red downtrend line could be an early sign that the Olso FoB Index is putting in a bottom or the move down is losing momentum. The measured move target of 68.16 NOK represented by the pink rectangle is also near the current lows. The Oslo FoB Index has stopped making lower lows and lower highs during the last two weeks of trading.

The Composite Index has rallied to a displacement the Composite Index has used as support and resistance in its history. The Composite Index does have room to keep moving to higher displacements. The moving averages now have a positive displacement. It will be interesting to see what happens when the Composite Index rolls over and tests this positive crossover.

The RSI has also rallied to a higher displacement and is at a displacement that has also been used for support and resistance in its history. The RSI has rallied above its two moving averages and above the green upsloping trendline that should have offered resistance. The moving averages of the RSI are also converging and should have a positive displacement in the near future.

Once again, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Oslo FoB Index trying to put in a bottom. The Oslo FoB Index as stopped making lower lows and lower highs, at least temporarily. The Oslo FoB Index did make a low near the pink measured move target. The Composite Index has been diverging with the RSI and the Oslo FoB Index for since late July. The moving averages on the indicators have or soon will have a positive displacements.

What concerns me about the ability for the Oslo FoB Index to rally is it is testing the underside of the red down sloping trendline. The Composite Index has made a very large move up in its displacement while the Oslo FoB Index has gone sideways. Meaning, the Composite Index is more over bought at lower Olso FoB Index prices.

The thing to watch out for the next week is can the Olso FoB Index break above the red down sloping trendline?

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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