Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 1st December 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 4th December 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index rallied 1.46% during this week of trading to Friday.

While looking for the resistance zone near 84.91 NOK, I wiped the slate clean and reworked all the horizontal support and resistance zones. Like a painter, sometimes it’s best to start over with a fresh view. As you can see in the chart, there is some small adjustments for the horizontal support and resistance zones based on the recent strong moves in the Oslo FoB Index. I didn’t find major resistance in the 84.91 NOK price area. There is a horizontal support zone at 82.66 NOK and there is a price moving average also at the same price offering additional support. Notice all the additional price moving averages roped together near the 79.02 NOK horizontal support zone offering additional price support. The Oslo FoB Index did breach the steep light green upsloping trendline in the last week of trading.

The Composite Index rallied up to a high displacement not seen since February of 2023. If you follow the solid red line marking this high displacement back in time, you can see that this can signal a short term high in the Oslo FoB Index but it’s usually not the final high. The Composite Index is now pulling back to test its fast-moving average and a green trendline that has marked divergence in the past. These trendlines usually offer strong support when tested. There are two trendlines drawn off previous divergence signals that are crossing over in the very near future. This usually signals an acceleration or change in trend.

The RSI tested its fast-moving average and appears to be bouncing higher off of that test. The RSI is displaying bullish characteristics in its recent displacement history. The RSI is in the upper end of its displacement history and like last week, the RSI has room to move higher.

I’m still of the opinion that the Oslo FoB Index is heading for higher prices. Can the Oslo FoB Index pull back in price? Absolutely, however I think the trend of higher highs and higher lows will continue. The next few trading days will be interesting watch how the Composite Index reacts to testing its fast-moving average and the green upsloping trendline.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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