Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 19th January 2024

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 22nd January 2024

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Olso FoB Index rallied 10.86% during this week of trading to close at 105.99 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index closed just above a price moving average and the 104.23 NOK resistance zone on Friday.

There is a faster moving price moving average that could offer resistance just above the current Oslo FoB Index price of 105.99 NOK. You can see the Oslo FoB Index is testing the negative crossover of two mentioned moving averages. In the available price history of the Oslo FoB Index, it appears that price continues to move higher into March. It is certainly possible that this scenario plays out again this year.

The Composite Index did make a low last Friday and turned at the same displacement that resumed the rally in late January 2023. This is a positive development for those looking for higher prices. The Composite Index is rallying to test the negative crossover in its moving averages. If the Composite Index can’t rally above its two moving averages or is repelled back down after testing the negative crossover of its two moving averages, it’s a bearish sign for near term prices for the Oslo FoB Index. I left enough history on the chart for you to examine on your own, look at when the Composite Index’s moving averages turn to a negative displacement and the Composite Index challenges the negative crossover from beneath. If this test is repelled back down, this is when Oslo FoB Index price can rapidly decline. The good news for the people who want higher prices is the Composite Index has broken above its fast-moving average.

The RSI also made its most recent bottom at last Friday’s closing. The RSI has also broken above its fast-moving average. The RSI is also rallying to test the negative crossover of it’s moving averages. Like the Composite Index, if the RSI is repelled back down, it can foreshadow the start a fast steep move down in the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI most recent low did stop above the displacement range that could signal the start of a downward trending market. The RSI does have history of pausing or reversing its trend at this displacement.

In summary, history suggests Oslo FoB Index can continue to move to higher prices. The Oslo FoB Index needs to clear some short-term hurdles, mentioned in the preceding paragraphs, for this rally to continue.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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