Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 17th October 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 20th October 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 6.4% during trading this week to end the week at 75.14 NOK. The Index appears to have made a higher price low. The trend of higher price lows and higher price highs is an important observation.

I bring this topic up several times a month because it’s often overlooked and it’s an important item to track. If the trend continues, the next swing up should go above the 80.23 NOK price high from late September. I did make some minor updates to the green horizontal dotted support zones.

The Oslo FoB Index bounced off the lower red dashed trendline that connects the first two price lows from July and August 2025. The Index is now testing the underside of the purple trendline that connects the 2021, 2022 and 2024 seasonal price lows. The 76.28 red horizontal resistance zone is nearby.

The Composite Index has rallied to the upper end of its historical displacement range without a corresponding moving up in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index does have room to move to higher displacements. The Composite Index is also testing the brown trendline that was drawn from previous divergence signal. It does appear the Oslo FoB Index is slightly above the brown trendline. Remember, these trendlines are not drawn with a razor fine line, more like a magic marker. You can see this brown trendline has been respected by the Oslo FoB Index. Will it be respected again? The Composite Index does have some history of making displacement highs at its current displacement. Notice the green, brown and black trendlines cross in late October and early November. We should expect to see some changes or acceleration in trend during that time.

The RSI displacement bounced and stayed within a bullish displacement range during the week. The RSI has broken above its fast-moving and slow-moving averages. Notice how far the moving averages are apart from each other. The moving averages only get so far away from each other and then will need to converge. The fast-moving average is now turning higher. The RSI is testing an area it has used as resistance during bear markets; it’s my belief that the seasonal price lows were made in late July.

In summary, the trend of higher price highs and higher price lows is continuing. If the trend continues, the Oslo FoB Index should rally above the previous price highs near 80 NOK during the next swing up. I’m not seeing any bearish or bullish divergence in the indicators currently. The RSI has plenty of room to move to higher displacements. The only thing on the chart that makes me pause is the Composite Index for reasons mentioned earlier.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction