Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 17th November 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 20th November 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index spent the last several weeks in a tight trading range between 76 NOK and 80 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index closed at 79.03 NOK today and as seen in the chart, the Oslo FoB Index broke above the red down sloping trendline.

The Oslo FoB Index appears to have tested this red down sloping trendline and used it as support near its last price low. This is good news if you want the Oslo FoB Index to rally. The Oslo FoB Index is testing several bunched-up price moving averages that can offer resistance. There is the 81.16 NOK horizontal resistance line above the Oslo FoB Index as well. During the last week of trading the Oslo FoB Index did make a higher low and a higher high.

The Composite Index held the green upsloping trendline and appears to be heading to test the grey down sloping trendline. The moving averages for the Composite Index have a positive displacement and I can argue the Composite Index is testing this positive crossover. As a reminder, we’ve seen powerful moves higher in the Oslo FoB Index if the Composite Index uses this intersection as support. The Composite Index has used this displacement as support and resistance in its history.

The RSI is testing its highs from November 7th, 2023. The RSI has moved above both of its moving averages and the spread between the moving averages should start converging. The main reason I believe the Oslo FoB Index is heading for higher prices is because the RSI is holding the lower end of its displacement range it has used when the Oslo FoB Index has trended higher in price. The RSI also broke above the displacement highs it has used in the past during downtrends. This happened when the RSI broke above the 65-displacement range when Oslo FoB Index rallied into the 80’s NOK in late September through the middle of October 2023. The RSI is now holding above the displacement lows it has used in the past to during bull markets.

If I was trading the Oslo FoB Index, this would be an intriguing trade setup. As long as the Oslo FoB Index stays above the red down sloping trendline and the price lows of 75.81 NOK and 76.12 NOK, I’d think there is a decent chance to have the Oslo FoB Index rally to the 85.68 NOK or 90.73 NOK resistance lines. The light blue down sloping trendline in the Oslo FoB Index price chart is also near the 90.83 NOK resistance line.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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