Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 16th May 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 19th May 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 24% to finish the week at 74.84 NOK. It was another week of quiet trading and price movement for the Index.

There is no need to adjust the horizontal support and resistance zones. I drew a green downward sloping trendline that connects the previous recent price lows. This trendline could offer support if tested again. The 72 NOK to 75 NOK price area has a history of being an important price area within the available price history. The trend of lower price lows and lower price highs continues.

The Composite Index moved to a higher displacement during the week of trading and then closed the week near a similar displacement as seen in the 5.9.25 update. The Composite Index could be rolling over for the next move down.
The Composite Index has used this displacement for support and resistance so it’s possible it will use this displacement again. The moving averages are crossing over to a positive displacement . There is a grey upward sloping trendline that connects a previous divergence signal , these are all near the same displacement.

The RSI is testing the positive crossover of its moving averages and the green trendline the connects a previous divergence signal. The RSI has been riding atop this green trendline during the latest advance. These trendlines can be strong support and resistance zones. The RSI has been recently operating within a bearish displacement range.

In summary, there are some bullish and bearish developments in the Oslo FoB Index. The bullish view is this price area has launched some significant rallies within the available price history. The indicators can rally from their current displacements. The RSI has a decent history of giving good buy signals when the RSI moving averages experience a positive crossover. This signal is less reliable during bear markets. The bearish view is, within the available price history, that during this time of the calendar year, the price of the Oslo FoB Index is usually experiencing a bear market. The Composite Index rallied more than the corresponding move up in the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index is near the upper end of its displacement range. The first sign of trouble will be when the RSI breaks below the green trendline.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction