Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 15th September 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 18th September 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index rallied 6.25% during this week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 77.08 NOK resistance zone.

The next horizontal resistance zone is at 82.31 NOK and there is also a price moving average close to the 82.41 NOK resistance zone. The red down sloping trendline is just above the Oslo FoB Index current price. The red down sloping trendline should offer resistance for the Oslo FoB Index. The trend of higher highs and higher lows is continuing from the middle of August 2023. The Oslo FoB Index has put in lows in the August and September time frames within the available history of the Index. The Oslo FoB Index has also made higher yearly lows within the available data. The lows from September of 2021 is lower than the low from August 2022. We have less than 3 years of data to make this conclusion. Meaning, I would not assign a high probability of this trend repeating.

The Composite Index retreated from its recent highs and could be bouncing off of its fast-moving average for another move higher. The Composite Index is at the higher end of its historical displacement but still has room to move higher. The Composite Index appears to be stretched a long way away from its slow-moving average.

The RSI has rallied up near the 60-displacement area. The RSI is testing the displacement highs it made on June 05, 2023. Can the RSI break through this resistance area and get above the zones it uses as resistance for bear markets? The RSI uses the 60 to 65 displacement areas as resistance during bear markets for the Oslo FoB Index.

Notice the divergence between the Composite Index and the RSI represented by the recent red trendlines drawn on the indicators. This is a sign the rally in the Oslo FoB Index is losing momentum. Not every divergence signal is a sell or buy signal. Sometimes we can get two or three divergences signals before the Oslo FoB Index trend changes. I’m a bit cautious saying the final lows for this swing down are in for the Oslo FoB Index . The main concern is the Oslo FoB Index is testing a price resistance zone and has bearish divergence signal in the indicators.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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