Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 13th October 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 16th October 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index rallied 7.9% during this week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index didn’t even notice the horizontal resistance zone at 86.01 NOK.

The 90.34 NOK horizontal resistance zone is a stronger resistance zone. I have two non-related techniques to find resistance showing the 90 NOK area as resistance. There are also two price moving averages and a horizontal resistance zone near 95.23 NOK. The Olso FoB Index is back to making higher highs and higher lows. The light blue down trendline drawn from the highs in the Oslo FoB Index from earlier in the year is now within sight. When I first drew in the trendline a month ago, it seemed to be a long way away. I put the red trendline back into the chart this week. The red trendline connects the two seasonal highs in the Oslo FoB Index. The red trendline above current prices isn’t a high probability target at this time but it’s not impossible.

The Composite Index has made a significant move higher during the last week. The Composite Index is near the upper end of its historical displacement range and still has room to move higher. The Composite Index does have a history of making highs at its current displacement. Notice the divergence between the Composite Index and the Oslo FoB Index. I drew purple trendlines on the Oslo FoB Index, Composite Index and the RSI to show the divergence. The Oslo FoB Index is making new highs while the Composite Index is not. This is a sign that the move higher the Oslo FoB Index is losing momentum. Another challenge for the Oslo FoB Index is the Composite Index is testing the negative crossover of its moving averages.

The RSI is testing its previous high from late September 2023. The RSI also has a history of making highs at this displacement and it’s nearing historically high displacement. There is an argument to say that the RSI is also divergence with the Oslo Fob Index because the RSI is at the same displacement vs the higher high in the Oslo FoB Index.

It appears the Olso FoB Index has put in its price lows and now is trending higher. I’d expect the next pull back to be corrective. The trend of higher price highs and higher price lows should continue.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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