Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 11th August 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 14th August 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Olso FoB Index fell 4.6% from Friday August 4th through Friday August 11. The Oslo FoB Index did move above the steeper red down sloping trendline and is now riding this trendline lower.

The next area of support is at 72.98 NOK. The 72.98 NOK is also a target price from a measured move from the middle of the move down. This is represented by the orange rectangle. When a security hits one of the measured move targets, I would expect some kind of reaction in the security price. I can count five waves down from the most recent high near 101.89 NOK to the current Oslo FoB Index price.

The Composite Index continues to move higher while the RSI and the Oslo FoB Index to move lower. This is very apparent in the very short term represented by two small black trendlines on the Composite Index and the RSI. The Composite Index is testing the underside of its fast-moving average. The Composite Index has used this displacement as support a few times in its history. It is then possible the Composite Index can use this displacement as resistance. Notice the spread between the Composite Index’s fast- and slow-moving averages. The current spread is about as large as it gets in the available history of the Oslo FoB Index. Meaning, at some point these two moving averages will start to converge.

The RSI is testing the displacement it used as support since May of 2023. The spread between the RSI’s fast- and slow-moving averages is wide however the RSI does have history of wider spread between its moving averages.

In the short term the down trend in the Oslo FoB Index continues. The next area of support of 72.98 NOK is close to the current Oslo FoB Index price. The next week is going to be an interesting week of trading for the Oslo FoB Index to see if the Index uses 72.98 as support.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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