Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 10th November 2023

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 13th November 2023

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange


The Oslo FoB Index fell 2.53% in the last week of trading. The Oslo FoB Index tested and was rejected by its price moving averages just below the horizontal resistance zone at 81.16 NOK.

The Oslo FoB Index did make a lower low than the lows from late October 2023. The next horizontal support zone is at 74.03 NOK. I drew in a red downtrend line off the prior two price highs. Breaking above this trendline can give an early clue the next move up could be starting. As mentioned in earlier updates, when then the Oslo FoB Index puts in a seasonal low and then advances, the pull back from the initial advance usually retraces about 1/3, 1/2 or 2/3 of the prior advance. The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 2/3 retracement currently.

The Composite Index is testing its fast-moving average and the same displacement it made a double bottom at in early October 2023. The Composite Index is at a higher displacement while the Oslo FoB Index is at a lower price, bullish divergence. I drew in two green trendlines to help you see the divergence between the Composite Index and the Oslo FoB Index. This is “usually” a bullish development.

The RSI is also testing the displacement lows from late October 2023. Notice that the Composite Index and the RSI made W shaped bottoms at that time. It’s very possible they make W shaped bottoms again. This can help with timing your trades. The RSI is holding the displacement areas it has used as support during previous rallies. The RSI did test the negative crossover of its moving averages and failed in the last week. This isn’t a bullish setup. The RSI needs to hold the 35 to 40 displacement area if the Oslo FoB Index has put in its seasonal low for 2023.

The setup in the Oslo FoB Index still looks bullish in my view. There are two trendlines crossing over in the Composite Index next week. This usually signals a change or acceleration in trend. Watch for the Oslo FoB Index to break above the red downward sloping trendline drawn on prices or break below the 74.03 NOK support zone.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.


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