Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 9th January 2026

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 12th January 2026

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 13.9% to end the week at 82.01 NOK. I made changes to the horizontal support and resistance lines. I also removed the red dashed upward sloping trendlines.

I added a lower green diagonal upward sloping trendline originating from the seasonal price lows in July. I’m curious to see if the Oslo FoB Index will test this green trendline and how the Oslo FoB Index responds.

The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 81.72 NOK horizontal support zone. The run of higher price highs and higher price lows has ended. The Oslo FoB Index has now made a new price low after making a recent new price high. This is a signal that the trend could be changing. Looking back at prior years rallies the Oslo FoB Index has broken the run of higher price highs and higher price lows and then continued to make higher price highs but this observation should not be ignored.

The Composite Index is back down to the lower end of its displacement range. The Composite Index is also displaying a bullish signal, represented by the green dashed trendline. The Composite Index is at a higher displacement while the Oslo FoB Index and RSI are making a lower low price and displacement low. This is bullish divergence. I re-populated the trendlines that are from prior divergence signals into the Composite Index pane. We’ve covered this topic many times during the last five years of updates, when these trendlines cross, there usually is a change or acceleration in trend. These changes do not have to be major trend changes. They can also represent small changes or acceleration of trend. There are several trendlines crossing in the next two weeks.

The RSI is testing the lower end of its bullish displacement range. If the season highs are not in, the RSI needs to rally soon to continue to operate within a bullish displacement range. The RSI is testing the upper side of the downward sloping green dotted trendline. This trendline has worked as support during the last couple of tests by the RSI. The RSI does have history of making changes at or near its current displacement. Notice how far away the RSI is away from its fast- and slow-moving averages. This spread is about as large as it gets within the available history of data. This is another signal that implies the RSI can rally.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is testing a horizontal support zone. The Composite Index is displaying bullish divergence. This implies that the move down is running out of momentum and trend can change. Usually, we only get one divergence signal that changes the trend in price. However, sometimes it can two or more divergence signals before the security will change direction. As usual, there is bullish and bearish data within the chart.

If you were trading the Oslo FoB Index, this would not be a place to go all in. It appears to be a place that an investor could take a smaller position if comfortable with the risk/reward. If the Oslo FoB Index falls below 77.70 NOK in price, run.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction