Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 19th December 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 22nd December 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 24.29% during this week of trading to end the week at 112.18 NOK. I reviewed the chart last night and the Oslo FoB Index was at 84.65 NOK, very close to the 85.75 green horizontal support line.

The Composite Index and the RSI were displaying very bullish signals at much lower displacements and the Oslo FoB Index was testing a horizontal support zone. I was hoping that the Oslo FoB Index was going to have a quiet day on December 19 so I could show the reader the bullish setup that was being displayed. That didn’t happen. Instead, the Oslo FoB Index rallied 32.52% in one day. This type of action isn’t unusual for this time of the year as seen in the chart. You can see where the indicators were as of yesterday, they were both near their recent displacement lows.

I made several changes to the green and red horizontal support and resistance zones. The Oslo FoB Index appears to be respecting the diagonal upward sloping red dashed trendlines, along with the sold diagonal trendlines. There is some confluence of resistance near the 118.89 NOK horizontal resistance line because the red dashed and solid diagonal lines intersect at this price. I’m still of the opinion that the Oslo FoB Index is going to challenge the pink trendline that connects several of the previous year’s seasonal price highs.

The Composite Index is at a displacement that has shown some modest support and resistance in the past, however, it has a long way to go to get the higher end of its historical displacement range. There are several trendlines drawn from previous divergence signals above the Composite Index that could offer resistance. The green and black trendlines that crossed last Wednesday, give or take a day or two, that was mentioned in last week’s report, basically nailed the price low and gave a good timing signal. The next two trendlines that will cross is around December 29, 2025. I’m not seeing any bearish divergence in the Composite Index but at the same time the RSI has made a much bigger move in its displacement vs the Composite Index.

The RSI is clearly still operating within a bullish displacement zone. There is a red downward sloping trendline that could offer resistance if challenged. The RSI is near a displacement that has resulted in stopping previous RSI’s advances. I’m not seeing a bearish divergence signal in the RSI.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is heading into the one of the most bullish periods of the year. If you look back in the available history of the data, this upcoming week of trading has seen some very large moves in price. Nothing is 100%, but I’d expect something similar to happen this year. As mentioned earlier, I’m thinking the Oslo FoB Index will challenge the pink trendline. Do prices have to touch the pink trendline? No, but it’s my opinion that it will get close. Last year the seasonal price highs were in early January, prior years the seasonal prices highs were more in the spring, for readers in the northern hemisphere.

I would like to wish you a Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays / Happy New Year.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction