Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 12th December 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 15th December 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 10.05% during this week of trading to finish the week at 90.25 NOK. I made some modest adjustments to the price chart.

I added the 92.98 NOK and 96.52 NOK horizontal resistance zones to the chart. I’ve left many of the red dotted horizontal resistance lines above the current market price on the chart because the Oslo FoB Index has made some big price moves during the month of December.

The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 90.65 NOK horizontal support zone area. The red dashed upward sloping trendline is below the current price, this trendline could offer support if tested. The Oslo FoB Index has been riding this trendline up through out this rally.

The Composite Index has retreated from the higher end of its displacement range and is now testing the purple trendline that could offer support for the Composite Index. The Composite Index does not have a lot of history of making turns at its current displacement. Notice the green and black trendlines drawn on the Composite Index pane cross on December 16th, plus or minus a day or two. When these trendlines cross, we should see a change or acceleration in trend for the Oslo FoB Index. I’m not seeing any bullish divergence in the Composite Index.

The RSI has also retreated down from its high displacement during this week of trading. The RSI did have bearish divergence with Oslo FoB Index at last Friday’s price high. The Oslo FoB Index made a higher price high while the RSI made a lower displacement high, represented by the solid red trendline drawn on the RSI.

The RSI isn’t displaying a bullish divergence signal vs the Composite Index or the Oslo FoB Index. The RSI is close but needs to go below the most recent displacement low while the Oslo FoB Index stays above it’s most recent price low of 80.50 NOK from late November 2025.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index and the indicators are resetting to lower prices and displacements. It is my opinion that this was necessary to reset for another move to higher prices. The indicators have moved away from the high end of their displacement ranges. The Oslo FoB Index is testing horizontal support, but the indicators are not displaying bullish divergence. Experience suggests to me to wait for bullish divergence or for a displacement level that has a history of making turns in the indicators before assuming the Oslo FoB Index is at the bottom of this swing down. The trendlines crossing next week on the Composite Index could be the start of the next move to higher prices.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction