Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 3rd October 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 6th October 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 5.84% during this week of trading to finish the week at 73.21 NOK. I made some very small adjustments to the horizontal support and resistance lines using the most recent data.

The Oslo FoB Index is testing the 73.49 NOK horizontal support zone. The blue trendline that connects the 2021 and 2022 price lows is also nearby. The upper red dashed diagonal line has been used for resistance in August, so it’s possible the Oslo FoB Index may use it as support. The black and lower red dashed diagonal trendlines are near the 69.54 NOK horizontal support zone. The Oslo FoB Index is going to stop its current price pull back on one of these support zones. Which one? In my humble opinion, the 73.49 NOK or 69.54 NOK horizontal support zones are the most likely currently.

I’m reintroducing the pink trendline that connects the last four years of price highs to display a possible seasonal price high target. I truncated some of the previous highs to use the 2024 price high. It will be interesting to see if this pink trendline is respected in the following months.

The first thing I noticed on the chart was the Composite Index. Look how much the displacement has fallen vs the price drop of the Oslo FoB Index. This is very bullish action. The Composite Index is now testing the lower end of its historical displacement range. The Composite Index is more oversold at higher prices. The purple trendlines drawn on the Composite Index and RSI panes display this observation. Notice that the Composite Index is at a lower displacement while the Oslo FoB Index is at a higher price. The Composite Index is also displaying bullish divergence with the RSI and the Oslo FoB Index. The Composite Index also has a history of using this displacement or a nearby displacement to make displacement lows.

The RSI has a similar signal as the Composite Index. It’s more oversold at higher prices, represented by the recently drawn purple trendline. The RSI is also displaying bullish divergence with the Composite Index displayed by the recently drawn green trendline. The RSI has some history of making displacement highs at its current displacement, meaning the RSI can also use this displacement as support. The RSI is continuing to operate within a bullish displacement range.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index is testing a horizontal support zone while displaying bullish divergence in the indicators. In my humble opinion, the Oslo FoB Index is displaying a very bullish setup. This would be a good place to put on a trade to profit from the next price advance. Can the Oslo FoB Index continue to go down? Absolutely! However, we’ve seen this setup many times in my previous updates, it would be unwise to ignore the data.

If you were trading the Oslo FoB Index, my thoughts are if the Oslo FoB Index continues to fall, I’d buy more with the belief that the season price highs will be in the 130 NOK to 150 NOK price range. I like these setups, depending upon your own risk tolerances, you have 4 NOK to 10 NOK of price risk vs 60 NOK in upside as a possible price target. This is a good risk / reward setup for a trader.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction