Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 19th September 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 22nd September 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied 7.45% during this week of trading to end the week at 80.02 NOK. This update is going to have the similar theme as last week’s update.

I updated the horizontal support and resistance zones for your review. I’m also adding three black upward sloping trendlines to help with trend recognition. The upper black trendline connects the July 28th price low with the first price high. The bottom black trendline connects to the first higher price low from the July 28th price low. The middle black trendline is in the middle, or 50% between, the upper and lower black trendlines. Ignore the vertical and horizontal green lines originating from the July 28th price low. The Oslo FoB Index appears to be respecting these black trendlines. These black trendlines are can also provide support and resistance.

The price of the Oslo FoB Index rallied above horizonal resistance zones during this week of trading and is testing or breaking through the 79.03 NOK resistance zone and 85.63 NOK is the next resistance zone. When the Oslo FoB Index does pull back in price the red dashed, purple and black trendlines could offer additional support along with the green horizontal support zones. The trend of higher price highs and higher price lows is continuing.

The Composite Index continues to diverge with the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI. This is typically a bearish development. In strong bull markets, the indicators can reset while the security continues to rally or consolidates. When this happens, it’s usually a very bullish setup. Notice the brown and grey trendlines are crossing in the very near future. This suggests that there will be a change or acceleration in the trend in the near future.

The RSI is at one of its highest displacements within the available history of data. An interesting exercise is to go back and look at what’s happened when the RSI has hit this displacement in the past. History does repeat itself.

I included a longer and shorter time view of the data this week. The chart with more time is meant for those of you who want to go back and look at what’s happened in the past while the RSI has been at similar displacements. The shorter time view is to see more of the shorter-term details in the chart.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index continues to rally in price with continuing bearish divergence in the Composite Index. The RSI is at one of its highest displacement levels within the history of the data. Both indicators need to reset to lower displacements at some point in time. There is a time target in the very near future that suggests there will be a change or acceleration in the current trend. It’s my belief that the seasonal price lows are in. The Oslo FoB Index should be rally mode into the holiday season or spring of 2026. However, even in uptrends, the price and indicators do need to reset occasionally to fuel the next leg up.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction