Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 22nd August 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 25th August 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index rallied .98% during this week of trading to end the week at 60.49 NOK. The Index spent the week grinding sideways and continues to ride the top side of the green downward sloping trendline.

The lack of price movement has made my job of keeping the chart updated relatively simple the last few weeks.

The confluence of price resistance between 61 and 66 NOK is still an obstacle and the green horizontal dotted support zones are displayed on the chart for your review.

The Composite Index is basically at the same displacement level it finished at in last week’s update. The green and purple trendlines mentioned in last week’s update is displaying a change or acceleration of trend coming around August 27th. Plus or minus a day or two. This change or acceleration of trend does not have to be a major change.

The RSI most recent displacement lows are in the bullish displacement range for the RSI. It will be very interesting to see at what displacement the RSI uses for its next displacement high and whether that displacement is in a bullish or bearish displacement range. I would suggest going back and looking at how the RSI acted during the initial stages of the seasonal price lows within the available history and compare it to what we are seeing today.

In this week’s update, I included a weekly chart for your review. I updated the horizontal support and resistance zones. The reason I included the weekly view in this week’s update is to show you a signal that is being displayed in the Composite Index. Notice the moving averages now have a positive displacement. Go back and look in the history of the data. What’s happened to the price of the Oslo FoB Index previously when this happened? It is a sign to WAKE UP! The data suggests there is a good probability that the seasonal price lows are in for 2025. Can the Oslo FoB Index price pull back a little and then go higher? Yes, and that might be the most likely outcome based on the available data. Could the signal fail? Absolutely, but I would not bet my money on it failing. This signal is four for four in suggesting the Oslo FoB Index is at its first higher price high of the season or its first higher price low. I could have copied and pasted the weekly view from the 10.4.24 update into this paragraph. The message from the 10.4.24 update is the same as it is today.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index has probably put in its seasonal price lows, or it will be very soon. The daily time frame doesn’t give us a lot of leverage or clues, but the weekly time frame does give us a better clue as to what is coming. It is time to pay attention to the Oslo FoB Index.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction