Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 15th August 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 18th August 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  

The Oslo FoB Index fell 4.4% during this week of trading to end the week at 59.90 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index might be attempting to hold the green downward sloping trendline that connects a few prior price lows.

I only made a few changes to the chart this week because of the small movement in price. The confluence of resistance zones is still between the 61 NOK to 66 NOK price area. The bearish signal mentioned in last week’s update brings the prior price lows into play. However, it is also possible the Oslo FoB Index grinds sideways for a period of time searching for a seasonal price low.

The Composite Index fell from the higher end of its displacement range. The Composite Index has made a much larger move down in its displacement vs the corresponding movement in the Oslo FoB Index price. This could be an early clue of bullish behaviour. The green slow-moving average and the black upsloping trendline should offer additional support if tested. Long term readers of these updates might remember that when trendlines drawn from prior divergences signal cross, it is an alert for a change in price. This doesn’t have to be a big change in price, just an acceleration of the existing trend or a change in trend, big or small. Notice the grey and green trendlines cross near August 27th, 2025, plus or minus a day or two. I’ve left this on the charts for months to help readers with a possible time target for the seasonal price low.

The RSI appears to be testing the blue upsloping trendline drawn from prior divergence signals and the underside of its fast-moving average. The moving averages for the RSI and the Composite Index now have positive displacements. It could be debated that the indicators are testing their positive displacement crossovers. This can be a very bullish setup in a bull market. It’s a little early, in my humble opinion, to say the Oslo FoB Index is in a bull market. The RSI continues to operate in a bearish displacement range. Both indicators do have history at their current locations.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index had a quite week of trading. As usual, I can point to both bullish and bearish developments within the chart. I believe the Oslo FoB Index is grinding along searching for a seasonal price low. This may have happened in late July, or it’s going to happen within the next two months if the seasonal price changes continue.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction