Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 25th July 2025

David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

Published: 28th July 2025

This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange

  


The Oslo FoB Index fell 8.65% this week to finish the week at 54.46 NOK. The Oslo FoB Index has recently broken below two major horizontal support zones and now appears to be heading to test the 53.92 NOK horizontal support zone.

The Oslo FoB Index continues to make lower price highs and lower price lows. There is a confluence of support near the 49.72 NOK, 46.06 NOK and 39.50 NOK horizontal support zones. I am reintroducing a method from a previous update using the middle of the move to project a future price low to display this confluence.

The Composite Index’s short term bullish divergence signal has vanished that was mentioned in recent previous updates. The Composite Index is still showing a longer-term bullish divergence signal vs the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI. I used a thicker purple line on the RSI and the Composite display this divergence. The spread between the two signals is pretty far apart, diminishing the strength of the signal. The Composite Index has used this displacement as a support and resistance within the available history of data. Meaning, it can use this displacement again. The Composite Index is approaching the lower end of its displacement range. However, it still has room to continue to go lower.

The RSI has also broken below recent displacement lows. The RSI has used its current displacement as resistance twice and as support three times within the available history of data. Like the Composite Index, the RSI can continue to move lower if needed. The RSI is continuing to operate within a bearish displacement range.

I included the weekly view the Oslo FoB Index this week. Each bar on represents one full week of price history. I include one technique on the weekly chart to find support and resistance. Like the daily view, the Composite Index and the RSI are showing a bullish divergence, but the signal is pretty far apart. I’m not seeing any short-term bullish divergence.

In summary, the Oslo FoB Index price continues to fall. There is some bullish divergence in both the weekly and daily time frames. However, the strength of this signal is in question on both time frames. You can see the support and resistance zones on the charts. The Oslo FoB Index will stop at one of them, which one? This is where confluence of support or resistance zones can give us a higher probability for each zone. Until we start to see a trend of higher price highs and higher price lows, it’s challenging to get too bullish about the Oslo FoB Index in my view.

Salmon is a major food supply amongst many other things. The price isn’t going to $0.00. At some point, usually between late August and October each year, the Oslo FoB Index experiences a change in supply and or demand and the price will begin to trend up.

  About This Analysis

About David Nye

David is a Senior Vice President in investment advisory with over 30 years of experience.

Based in Minnesota, USA he has a long history in technical analysis across a range of markets. David brings his experience to provide an independent insight into potential salmon pricing based on LFEX and DataSalmon data.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is used to try and identify price trends in the future. Analysts believe that by using factual past information (trading activity and price changes) it is possible to identify future price movement trends and is quite prevalent in commodity and forex markets but can be applied to any product.

Technical Analysis has been developing for over a century, and there are now hundreds of patterns and signals that have been created. They are often used in conjunction with other forms of research and analysis to help formulate, or support pricing trend opinions.

Purpose of the Analysis?

To provide an independent data-driven view of market pricing trends in the short and medium-term. As a potential tool, for users to access future pricing trends based on LFEX/DataSalmon derived market data.

How Does it Work?

On a regular basis (weekly), David will provide his independent analysis of LFEX and DataSalmon pricing data. The output will be to provide pricing trends based on the most up to date pricing received.

The analysis will show the expected trends and potential (price) levels, as well as other markers – for example, higher or lower price triggers that would affect the analysis of the trend – and what this might mean. It is data-driven, and will not, and does not, account for any other fundamental analysis, or weather or biological events for example. This is the same for any commodity product technical analysis.

Disclaimer

All information provided contains no guarantee whatsoever, especially of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and is provided without warranty of any kind, expressly or implied. In no event will, LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon, its member firms, or the partners, directors, officers, owners, agents or employees thereof be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event and under no legal or equitable theory, whether in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise, shall LFEX Ltd or DataSalmon be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained herein, including, without limitation, damages for lost profits, loss of goodwill, loss of data, work stoppage, the accuracy of results, or computer failure or malfunction