Technical Analysis: LFEX Norway Exporters Salmon Index, 23rd January 2026
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Published: 26th January 2026
This Article was Written by: David Nye - The London Fish Exchange
Technincal Analysis
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The Oslo FoB Index fell 6.99% during this week of trading and finished the week at 75.74 NOK. I made several changes to the horizontal support and resistance zones on the price chart.
There is a green horizontal support zone very close to the 76.64 NOK horizontal resistance zone. I’ve mentioned this in previous updates, these support and resistance horizontal lines are not drawn with a razor-sharp pen, more like a thick magic marker. The Oslo FoB Index broke below two horizontal support zones during this week of trading, and it’s broken below another diagonal support line drawn from the July 2025 price lows. The trend of lower price highs and lower price lows is continuing. One of the few bullish comments I can make about the price chart is I can easily count five waves down from the December 19th price high. I’m not going to go into a detailed explanation of how the Elliott Wave theory works regarding security prices in this update. Can this current move down from the 82.98 NOK resistance zone keep going lower, absolutely.
The Composite Index is displaying bullish divergence, like last week, in this week’s update vs the Oslo FoB Index and the RSI. The Composite Index is near the green dashed line that could act as additional support that was drawn from a previous divergence signal. The red and black trendlines crossing each other, mentioned in previous updates, seems to have hit the recent high trade at 81.44 NOK. The green and purple trendlines crossed on Wednesday this week. This was the day the Oslo FoB Index broke below the 77.66 NOK support zone. This may signal the halfway point of this swing down in price. If this is the case, this would imply Tuesday Jan 27th, plus or minus a day or two, could be a date for the Oslo FoB Index to make a change in trend.
The RSI is now operating in a bearish displacement zone. The RSI has not been at this displacement while being in a price uptrend. This is evidence that the seasonal price highs are in at 112.18 NOK. The odds of the Oslo FoB Index testing the 140 NOK price area for seasonal highs, like it has last four years, has dropped significantly during this week of trading. The RSI is testing a red and dotted green trendlines that were drawn from previous divergence signals. These two trendlines can offer additional support for the RSI. The RSI has some history of making changes in its trend near its current displacement. It has more history at slightly lower displacements. Notice the green dotted and tan trendlines cross sometime in the next week or so.
In summary, the uptrend in the Oslo FoB Index appears to be over. The bullish view, I’m seeing bullish divergence in the Composite Index. You usually only get one divergence signal before the price trend changes. This is the second bullish divergence signal since December 18th displacement low on the Composite Index. This is a clue the move down in price is losing momentum. The RSI is also testing two trendlines that should offer some support. These two trendlines will cross in the next week. This is a signal that could be a trend change in in the Oslo FoB Index.
The bearish view is the Oslo FoB Index is not testing a horizontal support zone. The RSI is clearly operating in a bearish displacement zone. This implies that Oslo FoB Index trend has changed. If you were trading this security, the strategy from buying the dips and selling into the rallies has changed. In this environment, I’d be looking to short the Oslo FoB Index into a rally and cover the short position on a pullback in price.
